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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

DCE.FB(FB2612) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish, Short-covering Curbing the Rebound | 2026-10-30

Direction: Bearish. FB2612[10-29 Settlement] 1210.5, 5-day -1.53%, 20-day -4.05%, positioned at 29.4% below the 20-day channel midpoint, with trend and structure pointing to the downside. Three core reasons: (1) Price has broken below the 20-day moving average midpoint and remains under pivot P 1212.33, with rebound highs shifting lower sequentially; (2) Main long position [10-29] 9290 hands (+16); prices falling significantly with only slight increase in open interest, indicating active short-covering pressure; (3) 20-day decline of -4.05% accompanied by RV20 of 15.2%, expanding volatility with directional bias to the downside, with short-side momentum dominant. Invalidated condition: Daily close breaks above 1227.67 (next pivot R1) and holds, pausing the bearish structure; if daily close breaks above 1245.5 (previous weekly close high), trend reverses to the long side. Downside support watched at 1194 (20-day channel lower band) and 1203.67 (next pivot S1).