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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis | Bearish: Short-covering rebound nears pivot, widening net short caps upside | 2026-10-30

Iron Ore (I2701) direction is assessed as bearish. Core logic: the 20-day trend remains down 4.21%; the 10-29 rebound was short covering (open interest fell sharply by 40,423 lots), the top 20 seats' net short widened to 44,499 lots, and major capital is actively exiting rather than building longs, with price approaching the dual resistance of the next pivot P 680.33 and R1 688.67. Fundamentally, steel social inventories shifted to accumulation in early October, up 2.7% month-on-month, while key steelmakers' inventories fell 8.4% ten days month-on-month, indicating slowing destocking, and supply-demand lacks upside drivers. Invalidation conditions: if the daily close breaks above R1 688.67 (about 0.75 ATR from the current price) and the net short contracts for two consecutive days, the view shifts to bullish.