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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

DCE.RR(RR2612) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish: Breaks Below Pivot 3481.67, Short-Open Dominates | 2026-10-30

Main DCE Japonica Rice RR2612 is bearish. Core logic: [10-29 Settlement] Price has breached pivot P 3481.67 and S1 3473.33, down 3.69% over 5 days and 3.77% over 20 days, placing it in a weak position at the 18% mark within the 20-day range. Price structure shows a declining high. Main position open interest increased by 1,141 lots to 21,630, confirming short-side active accumulation. Directional invalidation: Daily close above 3,507 (10-29 night session high) or holding above the next pivot P 3,465.67. Technically, ATR14 is 26.29 (0.76%), RV20 is 14.7%; implied volatility exceeds actual volatility. Fundamentally, paddy supply-demand remains loose. Cross-asset: Oil-to-gold ratio 0.0255 at 1Y percentile 99.6%, copper-to-gold ratio 1.64 at 1Y percentile 99.6%, reflecting diverging risk sentiment and growth expectations, with limited transmission to agricultural products. Operationally, a break below 3,465.67 targets 3,441.33 (S1).