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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 4004.57 S1 Governs; Break Targets 3977.73 | 2026-10-30

We stay SHORT COMEX December gold (GCZ26). The invalidation is a daily settle above 4069.97 (next-session R1, NEXT ladder from the 2026-10-29 H/L/C) — above that the two-week descent stalls and the trade is wrong. Three reasons: (1) trend and momentum are down — settle 4031.4 [2026-10-29] is -4.07% on 20D and sits at only the 15.7% mark of the 20-day range 3989.1–4259, with ATR14 at 68.19 (1.69% of price) confirming elevated but orderly downside range expansion; (2) positioning has not been washed out — CFTC managed-money net length as of 2026-10-20 is still at a 89.17 3-year crowding percentile (netPct 25.9%) after four consecutive weekly declines, so the weak-hand flush that typically ends a gold slide is incomplete; (3) macro headwinds persist — DXY 101.93 and 10Y yield 4.99% [2026-10-29] keep real-carry pressure on a non-yielding asset, and the gold/silver ratio at 76.96 (1Y percentile 92.46%) confirms gold holding rich while silver lags, consistent with defensive rather than inflation-demand-led strength. Fundamentally, COMEX registered stocks at 14.83 Moz [2026-10-27] and flat SHFE warrants of 116,904 kg [2026-10-29] show no physical squeeze, while GLD holdings fell 1.33% over 20 sessions — ETF investors are exiting, not accumulating. Trade mechanics: the break below 4004.57 (next-session S1) targets 3977.73 (S2), which sits beyond the trigger by more than half an ATR. Risk: 20D low 3989.1 and the 52W low at 3925.1 are nearby supports that could absorb the first push.