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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Lean Hogs (HE=F) Deep Dive | Oversold Bounce, but Bearish Trend Intact | 2026-10-30

We are NEUTRAL-to-BEARISH on Lean Hogs (HE=F, HEZ26.CME); the trend is decisively down and we would not buy weakness until a daily settle above the 60.833 next-session R1 restores structure. The market settled at 59.825 [settle 2026-10-29], up 2.09% on the day but down 8.73% over five sessions and down 22.81% over twenty sessions, with ATR14 at 1.571 (2.63% of price) and RV20 at 49.7% — an already violent tape. The 20-day channel (excl. today) is 58.225–78.4, and price sits at the very bottom of that range, having tested 58.2 intraday on 10-29. Fundamentally, the term structure is in steep contango: M1-M2 at -5.575 (-8.69%) with a roll yield of -52.12%, a sign of ample nearby supply and a material carrying cost for longs. No Asia print was captured for this issue, so report-date observations rely on the prior settlement. Positioning and cross-asset data offer no clear contrarian signal; the CFTC commitment-of-traders detail required to call a crowded short is not in the supplied dataset. Given the combination of a bearish fundamental setup and deeply oversold — but not yet stabilized — technicals, the risk/reward is poor in both directions; we stand aside unless 60.833 (next-session R1) is reclaimed on a daily settle, which would signal near-term stabilization toward 61.842 (R2).