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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Bias | 2026-10-30

We stay LONG COMEX copper (HGZ26.CMX). The call rests on three pillars: (1) exchange inventories are draining fast — SHFE warrants fell 10.09% d/d to 11,347 MT [2026-10-29] and are down 7,741 MT on a 20-report basis, while LME stocks slipped to 271,450 MT [2026-10-28]; (2) the copper/gold ratio at 1.64 sits at the 99.6% 1-year percentile [2026-10-29], an emphatic pro-growth/risk-on configuration for the industrial metal; (3) positioning is not crowded — CFTC managed-money net length at 47,690 contracts (netPct 14.58%, crowding percentile 45.72) leaves ample room for re-leveraging on a breakout. Price settled at 6.6025 [settle 2026-10-29], up 3.2% over five sessions despite a -1.03% one-day pullback, with ATR14 at 0.126 (1.91% of price) framing a 6.4668–6.7648 operating band. A supply-side catalyst emerged intraday: Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi underground operations were reported temporarily closed [2026-10-30 01:12 BJT]. Invalidation is a daily settle below S2 6.4668 (NEXT ladder); upside focus is R1 6.6837 then R2 6.7648. China PMIs on 10-31 are the near-term event risk. Risks: DXY at 101.93 and 10Y at 4.99% are firm, and the 20-day channel top at 6.789 caps the tape near R2.