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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish into NEXT pivot 2.958 — contango, record shorts | 2026-10-30

We stay SHORT natural gas (NG=F, mapped to December 2026 NYMEX futures, NGZ26.NYM); invalidation is a daily settle above the NEXT-session R1 at 3.02. The market is rebounding off a capitulation low, but the bounce is a short-covering rally inside a heavy fundamental and structural downtrend, not a reversal. Three reasons: (1) term structure remains in deep contango (M1–M2 −0.438, roll yield −151.47%), which pays shorts to roll and penalizes longs; (2) managed-money net positioning is net short and growing more so (−157,409 contracts as of 2026-10-20, Δ −30,928 w/w) with no crowding extreme (43rd percentile), so there is room to add; (3) the 20-day trend is still down (−2.09%) and price settled at 2.905 [settle 2026-10-29], exactly beneath the NEXT pivot P at 2.958 — the rally has stalled at resistance, not broken through. Seasonality is mildly supportive (+4.24% mean over the next 20 sessions, up 8 of 15 years) but the sample is small and the 2023 worst case (−16.65%) shows the downside tail is real. Volatility is elevated (ATR14 0.1685, 5.8% of price; RV20 49.5%), so risk must be sized to a full daily range, not a quiet-day assumption. The bearish thesis is a term-structure and positioning thesis, not a weather bet.