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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

SHFE.BU(BU2701) Deep Analysis Report | Bullish, Cost-Driven and Open Interest Resonance | 2026-10-30

Direction: Bullish. SHFE Bu2701 continuous contract [10-29 settlement] at 5106 yuan/ton, up 12.73% over 5 days and 4.33% over 20 days, with an ATR14 of 200.07 yuan. Price sits at 60.8% of the 20-day range between 4372 and 5585 yuan. Key drivers are threefold: First, the crude oil-to-bitumen ratio of 0.0255 is at the 99.6th percentile over 1 year, indicating strong cost support. Second, main position holdings increased by 16194 lots alongside a 3.34% price rise, signaling active long-side accumulation. Third, the top 20 members maintain a net long position of 29492 lots. A drawback is the net long position narrowing by 2749 lots from the previous close, while the 20-day RV stands at 75.9%, indicating elevated volatility requiring position control. Invalidation condition: a daily close below the next pivot S1 level at 5030 yuan.