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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Managed-Money Exodus Confirms Downtrend | 2026-10-30

Bearish SI=F (SIZ26.CMX): the 52.38 settle broke the prior 20-day low at 52.71, and only a daily settle back above the NEXT pivot at 52.95 negates the breakdown. Three pillars support the call. First, technical: a 14.38% 20-day decline with ATR14 at 1.987 (3.79% of price) shows a high-volatility downtrend; the settle below the 20-day range floor confirms the channel break. Second, positioning: CFTC managed-money net fell from 7,528 to 3,505 contracts over four weeks (crowding percentile 28.21), a sustained liquidation that leaves room for further long exits. Third, cross-asset: the gold/silver ratio at 76.96 sits at a 92.46% 1-year percentile, confirming silver's persistent underperformance versus gold. Fundamentals offer no support: COMEX registered stocks at 99.8 Moz are down 1.76 Moz over 20 reports while SHFE warrants fell 69,866 kg, but ETF holdings rose 1.08% over 20 sessions — a demand mismatch where investment demand is not translating into price strength. Implied vol at 44.63% versus realized 34.9% (IV/RV 1.28) means options are pricing event risk. Risk: a daily settle above 52.95 invalidates the bearish call.