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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 10% 20D Slide, Contango Confirms Burden | 2026-10-30

We stay SHORT corn (ZCZ26.CBT). The December contract settled 451.25 [settle 2026-10-29], down 10.15% over 20 sessions, and every completed bar since 10-23 has printed a lower high and a lower low; nothing in the data argues for a bottom. Three reasons: (1) trend and momentum are unambiguous — price sits at 6% of the 20-day range (448.5–509.75, ex-today) and has closed beneath the 10-28 classic pivot P (451.83) that governed the 10-29 session; (2) the M1–M2 term structure carries a contango of −13.25 cents (−2.85%) with a roll yield of −11.4%, so longs pay to hold and the burden is entirely on the demand side; (3) seasonality is hostile — the next 20 sessions average −2.4% (median −3.02%, up only 4 of 15 years). Invalidation is a daily settle above 454.5 (NEXT R1); below that, the 447.75 S1 and then 444.25 S2 are the downside waypoints. Realized vol of 19.1% against a 1.65% ATR keeps risk definable; a VaR95 of −1.97% sizes the daily hazard. No Asia print was captured for this issue, so intraday levels are not quoted.