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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish breakdown below 20-day low, target 1206.75 | 2026-10-30

Bearish: the 1219.75 settle broke the prior 20-day low at 1222.75, and the move has confirmation from trend, momentum, and positioning. First, the trend is uniformly down — 1D -0.39%, 5D -2.65%, 20D -5% — with five consecutive lower daily closes (1256.5, 1241.25, 1229.25, 1224.5, 1219.75) and a 20-day channel that has now been breached on the downside. Second, the next-session pivot ladder (NEXT) has already shifted below the prior one: P 1219, S1 1213.25, S2 1206.75 versus the RETRO P 1228.33, confirming the market is discounting lower equilibrium. Third, the supply-demand backdrop is unsupportive: the US soybean crush margin sits at 2.352 USD/bu (2026-10-28), down from 2.4326 twenty sessions earlier and only at the 43.65% 1-year percentile, meaning processor demand is not tightening the balance. The term structure adds a carry burden: M1-M2 contango of -13.5 (-1.09%) with a roll yield of -6.54% penalizes longs. Invalidation is a daily settle back above 1228.33 (RETRO P); a daily close below 1206.75 (NEXT S2) would extend the slide. Volatility is low (RV20 10.5%, ATR14 16.75), so the path of least resistance is a slow grind rather than a crash. The trade is bearish while 1228.33 holds as resistance.