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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Oversold Bounce Fails at 610.75, Path to 588.25 | 2026-10-30

We stay SHORT wheat (ZW=F, underlying December 2026 CBOT contract ZWZ26.CBT). The prior session's settle is 603.75 [settle 2026-10-29], down 3.36% over five sessions and 11.57% over twenty sessions, with ATR14 at 14.32 (2.37% of price) and RV20 at 19% confirming a persistent, high-volatility downtrend rather than a stable base. The bounce off the 20-day range low at 593.25 stalled exactly at the next-session R1 at 610.75 and the 10-29 intraday high at 610, a failed rebound inside a broken channel. Fundamentally, the term structure is in deep contango — M1-M2 at -14.25 (-2.32%) with a roll yield of -9.29% — a structural carry penalty for longs that signals abundant nearby supply and an unwillingness of the market to pay for prompt delivery. Macro headwinds compound this: a firm DXY at 101.93 and 10Y yields at 4.99% pressure dollar-denominated export pricing, while cross-asset ratios show copper/gold and oil/gold at 99.6–100.0 1-year percentiles, a risk-seeking rotation away from defensive commodities that historically drains length from grains. Invalidation is a daily settle above 617.75 (next-session R2); a daily close below 596 (next-session S1) targets 588.25 (S2).