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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-29 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

CZCE.SH(SH2701) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish: Record-High Open Interest Collapses Demand, Target 1434 Below 1460 | 2026-10-30

Direction: Bearish. SH2701 night session last traded at 1460, down 1.08% from yesterday's settlement, down 9.32% over 5 days, down 21.63% over 20 days, trading at the 5th percentile of the 20-day range, bearish trend established. Core reasons: 1) Open interest reached the 100th percentile over the past year, indicating extreme high-pressure position reduction in a background of declining open interest, with longs actively exiting rather than shorts being squeezed out, characteristic of a weak trend driven by long liquidation.
2) On the macro front, the expected China Manufacturing PMI for 10-31 is 49.9 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI expectation is 50.0, both below prior values, providing no demand-side reversal catalyst for the chemicals sector.
3) Technically, the 20-day decline of 21.63% far exceeds the 22.6% annualized implied volatility (RV20), yet the 14-day ATR remains at 3.25%, indicating that downside volatility has not diminished. Direction invalidation condition: Night session close breaks above 1488.67 (Pivot R1) and holds, or PMI surprises to the upside above 50.
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