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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-29 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

SHFE Gold (SHFE.AU) In-Depth Analysis Report｜Bearish｜2026-10-30

SHFE Gold 2612 is bearish. There are three core logics: first, managed funds' net long positions have been reduced for four consecutive weeks, and crowding remains at a high level in the 89.17% percentile of the past 3 years, meaning the de-crowding process is not yet over; second, the net long positions of the top 20 seats have narrowed for two consecutive days, with the main contract falling on position reduction, which indicates active long exits rather than short squeezing; third, both international and Chinese markets have weakened in sync, with COMEX gold at 4031.4 USD [10-29 settlement] breaking below the next pivot P of 4043.13, and SHFE gold's night session closing at 861, already below the next S1 of 862.76, down 7.69% over 20 days with price situated at a low 13.8% of the 20-day range. Invalidation condition for the direction: if the daily close stands above 873.46 (the next pivot R1), the bearish view is invalidated, turning to neutral and waiting on the sidelines.