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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-29 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Rebar (RB2701) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish: Weak Pullback, Inventory Pivot Capsizing | 2026-10-30

Direction: Bearish. Core logic comprises three points: First, price structure is weak; RB2701 [10-29 Settlement] 3060 resisted the upper band of the 20-day range 3131, down 1.83% on the day, and night session [10-29] close 3038 broke below the next pivot P 3056.67, bearish structure unchanged. Second, fundamentals turn bearish; China Iron and Steel Association weekly report shows social inventory 939 million tonnes in early Oct 2026, up 2.7% WoW, signaling seasonal stockpiling, while September late-stage key steel enterprise inventory fell to 1565 million tonnes, but demand side lacks positive drive. Third, fund flow does not support a reversal; although front 20 positions are net long 1,708 contracts, main position daily reduction 78,649 contracts, belonging to short-covering rise, not active long increase. Direction invalidation condition: daily close sustains above 3071.33 (next pivot R1), or manufacturing PMI due 10-31 rebounds unexpectedly above 50.1.