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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Iron Ore (I2701) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish: Downtrend Unchanged with Decreasing Open Interest | 2026-10-31

Direction: Bearish. The Iron Ore I2701 contract is under the 20-day moving average in a downtrend channel. Settlement at 675 yuan on [10-30], daily decline of -5.82%, open interest decreasing alongside price, indicating a pattern of long liquidation. On the supply-demand side, seasonal accumulation of steel social inventories, declining furnace operating rates, and weakened iron ore demand support. Port inventories remain high. Technically, the price is at the 23.3% quantile of the 20-day range, near the lower band, with a 14-day ATR of 11.96 points and low volatility. The net short position of the top 20 traders has expanded to 45,713 contracts, with main force nominal open interest at 38.59 billion yuan, down 1.05 billion yuan daily, indicating fund outflow. The international and China market premium narrowed to +6.79% from the previous period, with the China market relatively weak. Failure conditions: Daily close above 688.67 yuan (near the upper boundary of the 20-day range and previous resistance), or a significant increase in open interest accompanied by price stabilization.