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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — LME Stock Build Overwhelms SHFE Draw, 6.4223 Key | 2026-10-31

Bearish HG=F (COMEX December copper, HGZ26.CMX) into the next session; invalidation is a daily settle above the NEXT pivot at 6.5102, which would mark the 10-30 breakdown as a false move. The call rests on three pillars. First, price action is deteriorating: the 6.482 settle [2026-10-30] is down 1.83% on the day and sits at only 26.5% of the 6.3715–6.789 20-day range, with the 10-30 bar closing near its 6.4505 low and below RETRO S1 at 6.5347. Second, the inventory signal has flipped bearish at the margin: LME warehouse stocks rose to 272,200 MT [2026-10-29], +24,125 over 20 reports, while SHFE warrants fell to 10,999 MT [2026-10-30], a -5,621 twenty-report draw — the exchange-of-warrant pattern points to material relocating to LME sheds rather than disappearing. Third, positioning is a headwind, not a cushion: CFTC managed-money net length fell to 40,575 contracts as of 2026-10-27, a -7,115 week-on-week decline, while money-manager net percent of OI sits at a 45.72 three-year crowding percentile (as of 2026-10-20) — length is being liquidated from a mid-range, not an extreme, leaving room for further exits. Macro support is absent: DXY at 101.96 and 10Y at 4.93% [2026-10-30] keep the carry backdrop firm, and the copper/gold ratio at 1.66 (1Y percentile 100%) marks copper's pro-growth outperformance as maxed. A break below NEXT S1 at 6.4223 targets 6.3627 (S2), 0.0596 beyond the trigger and well outside the 0.1303 ATR14. China PMI at 09:30 BJT 10-31 is the near-term catalyst; a sub-49.7 print would confirm demand weakness.