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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Sub-$2.88 Contango, Record Net Short | 2026-10-31

We stay SHORT natural gas (NG=F, December 2026 NYMEX). Invalidation is a daily settle above 2.9783 (next-session R2). Three reasons: (1) The term structure is decisively bearish — M1–M2 contango of −0.44 (−12.97%) with a roll yield of −155.66% annualized means the prompt contract is structurally discounting ample near-term supply, and longs pay a severe carry penalty to hold the front month. (2) Managed-money net short positioning has expanded for a second consecutive week (−206,317 contracts as of 2026-10-27, Δ −48,908 w/w) while open interest is falling — active short-selling, not crowded consensus, and the 3-year crowding percentile of 43.07 (as of 2026-10-20) leaves room for further short extension before the trade becomes consensus. (3) Price is in a technical downtrend: settle 2.883 [2026-10-30] is −5.01% on 20 days and sits below the 20-day range midpoint (46.1% position within 2.497–3.334), with the last completed weekly bar closing −15.28% w/w at 2.64. The current week's +9.2% rebound is a counter-trend bounce that has already stalled at 2.928 intraday. Seasonality is supportive (+4.23% mean, 8 of 15 years up) but is context only and does not override the structural setup. A break below 2.8327 (next-session S1) targets 2.7823 (S2), a 0.0504 move that is well within one ATR (0.1681).