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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Shanghai Gold 2612 Deep Analysis Report | Increased Position Break Below 20-Day Lower Limit, Bearish Outlook | 2026-10-31

Direction: Bearish. Shanghai Gold 2612 night session closed at 831.5, down 3.53% from the [10-30 settlement] 861.9, breaking below the recent 20-day low of 856.28, triggering a breakdown. Core reasons: First, the price broke below the 20-day lower limit, the technical pattern turned bearish, and the next pivot S1 is 850.61, which has already been breached in the night session; second, the net long position of the top 20 traders decreased by 7,067 hands to 144,701 hands, with bulls actively reducing positions and leaving the market, while main trader holdings decreased by 929 hands, indicating a decline due to reduced positioning; third, COMEX gold fund net long positions have declined for four consecutive weeks, and COT crowding remains at a high level of 89.17%, with profit-taking pressure still significant. Failure conditions for the direction: Daily close above 863.85 (the next pivot R1), or a breakout and stabilization above 3938.8 for COMEX gold 3898.9 [10-30 settlement] (international market next pivot P).