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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Open-Interest-Added Decline + Widened Net Short | 2026-10-31

Direction: Bearish. The core logic is a bearish confluence of capital flows and positioning: RB2701 closed at 3039 yuan based on [10-30 settlement], down 0.98% from the previous settlement, with the dominant contract's nominal open interest increasing by 956 million yuan (open interest +31,542 lots) on the day—a typical decline on rising open interest, reflecting active short positioning; meanwhile, the net short position of the top 20 seats was 7,344 lots, widening by 9,052 lots from the previous day, indicating short dominance. Technical indicators are also weak: the price sits at the 15.1% percentile of the 20-day range of 3012-3131 and has broken below the retracement pivot P at 3056.67. On the fundamentals, social inventory rose 2.7% month-over-month in early October, an off-season inventory build, while the manufacturing PMI to be released on October 31 is expected at 49.9, below the prior reading of 50.1, pointing to weak demand expectations. Direction failure condition: if the daily close breaks above 3050 (the next pivot R1 is 3049.67) and holds, the bearish logic weakens and the outlook should shift to neutral wait-and-see.