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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Momentum Unbroken | 2026-10-31

We stay SHORT SI=F (SIZ26.CMX). The [settle 2026-10-30] 49.276 print broke below the prior 20-day low of 52.025 (ex-today range), confirming a downtrend that has now delivered -5.93% on the day, -8.66% over 5 sessions and -18.44% over 20 sessions. Three factors drive the call: (1) technical — the settle below the 20-day low and below NEXT pivot S1 48.009's neighborhood leaves the next support at 46.742 (S2) with no completed reversal pattern; (2) flow/positioning — managed-money net length has fallen for four consecutive COT weeks (7,528 → 3,321 contracts, as of 2026-10-27) yet crowding at the 28.21 percentile shows the de-risking is mature but not exhausted, and IV−RV at +9.1 vol pts means put protection is being bid; (3) cross-asset — the gold/silver ratio at 79.12 [2026-10-30] (1Y percentile 94.05%) confirms silver is lagging gold, and copper/gold at its 1Y percentile 100% does not yet signal a growth-led industrial rescue. Invalidation is a daily settle back above NEXT R1 51.429; a daily close below S1 48.009 targets 46.742. Fundamentals are mixed rather than supportive: COMEX registered stocks rose +4.85% d/d to 104.64 Moz [2026-10-28] while SHFE warrants drew down -65,000 kg over 20 reports, and SLV holdings added +1.08% over 20 sessions — physical accumulation is not stopping the price decline.