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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 447.75 Settle, Target 444.42 | 2026-10-31

Bearish ZC=F (ZCZ26.CBT): the downtrend that has carried the December corn contract 10.05% lower over 20 sessions remains intact, and we expect it to test 444.42. The prior settlement at 447.75 [settle 2026-10-30] sits at the very bottom of the 20-day range 447.5–509.75, with ATR14 at 7.2 (1.61% of price) and RV20 at 19.1% confirming elevated but orderly downside volatility. The last completed weekly bar closed at 456, down 3.85% w/w, and the current unfinished week is lower still at 447.75. Fundamentally, the term structure shows M1–M2 contango at -13.5 (-2.9%) with a roll yield of -11.62%, a persistent penalty for long holders that reflects ample nearby supply. Macro headwinds add to the bearish tilt: DXY at 101.96 and 10Y yields at 4.93% keep pressure on dollar-priced commodities, while the oil/gold ratio at 0.0264 (1Y percentile 100%) and copper/gold at 1.66 (1Y percentile 100%) signal a growth-sensitive macro backdrop that has not favored agricultural raw materials. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is also negative, with a mean of -2.06% and only 3 of 15 years higher. Invalidation requires a daily settle above the next-session pivot resistance at 450.83; a decisive break below 444.42 targets 444.25 (S2, RETRO).