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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Contango, Weak Demand, No Reversal Signal | 2026-10-31

Bearish ZS=F (January 2027 CBOT contract, ZSF27.CBT) while the 10-30 settle of 1222.25 holds below the 20-day midpoint; invalidation on a daily settle above 1233.58 (next-session R2). Three pillars: (1) trend and momentum are down — 5D -2.73%, 20D -4.38%, and the last five settled bars show a sequence of lower highs and lower closes from 1241.25 to 1222.25; (2) the carry structure is bearish — M1-M2 contango of -8.75 (-0.7%) with a roll yield of -4.22% means the market pays storage and longs face a negative carry, confirming abundant nearby supply rather than tightness; (3) demand is not rescuing the balance — the crush margin slipped to 2.2675 USD/bu (10-29) from 2.3444 twenty sessions earlier, at a 1Y percentile of 38.1%, so processors are profitable but not expanding, and there is no inventory or WASDE data in the feed to support a tightness narrative. Volatility is low and falling (RV20 10.6%, ATR14 16.54 ≈ 1.35% of price), which favors trend persistence over reversal. Seasonality is mildly supportive (+1.11% mean, up 10 of 15 years) but is context only and does not offset the downtrend. The cross-asset backdrop is neutral-to-supportive for beans: DXY at 101.96 and a 10Y yield at 4.93% are not a headwind, while the oil/gold ratio at a 1Y percentile of 100% flags macro softness that typically drags on commodity demand. Trade the short side against 1233.58; a break below 1211.58 (next S2) targets lower prices.