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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Oversold Bounce Fails at 610, Path to 592 | 2026-10-31

We stay SHORT wheat (ZWZ26.CBT) with invalidation on a daily settle above 615.67 (next-session R2). The market is in a well-established downtrend: settle 603.5 [2026-10-30], 5D -3.44%, 20D -11.64%, sitting in the bottom 9.1% of the 20-day range 593.25-706.
5. Three factors drive the call: (1) trend and momentum — every one of the last five settled bars closed lower than the prior bar's high and the sequence of closes (616, 610.25, 599, 603.75, 603.
5) shows a series of lower highs on the daily chart; (2) positioning asymmetry — managed-money length has not been flushed despite an 11.6% two-week decline, leaving room for trend-following liquidation rather than a contrarian squeeze; (3) term structure confirms physical apathy, with M1-M2 contango at -13.5 (-2.19%) and a roll yield of -8.75% penalizing longs. The 20-day low at 593.25 [settle basis, ex-today] is the immediate magnet, and a daily break below 597.83 (next-session S1) targets 592.17 (S2). ATR14 of 14.16 (2.35% of price) defines the risk band; RV20 at 18.9% with no wheat implied-vol index in the data means options pricing cannot be flagged as cheap or rich for this asset specifically. Seasonality is a headwind: the next 20 sessions average -2.44% (median -1.87%, up only 3 of 15 years). No Asia print was available for this issue, so report-date observations are labelled intraday.