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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-30 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

DCE.FB(FB2612) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Decline on Rising Open Interest, Sellers Dominant | 2026-10-31

Direction: Bearish. FB2612 [10-30] closed at 1220, settled at 1222, 5-day -1.89%, 20-day -3.75, sitting at the 30.6% level of its 20-day range, with the price center of gravity continuously shifting lower. Three core reasons: first, after breaking below the 10-28 low of 1194, the rebound has been weak, capped below pivot R1 1227.67, indicating a weak trend structure; second, main open interest stands at 4702 lots, with a sharp single-day increase of 4588 lots—the price decline accompanied by open-interest expansion indicates active short selling pressure; third, the 20-day change is -3.75% with ATR14 at 12.89 (1.06%), volatility expanding to the downside, and RV20 at 15.2% shows intensifying realized volatility. Direction invalidation condition: a daily close breaking above 1227.67 and holding above it invalidates the bearish logic; a further break above 1238 would confirm a reversal. Downside support to watch is S1 1212.67; a break below targets 1194.