본 리포트 제공 MacroTerms.com

데이터 기준일: 2026-10-30 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Crowded Longs Unwinding | 2026-10-31

Bearish GC=F (COMEX December gold, GCZ26). The 2026-10-30 settlement of 3898.9 broke below the prior 20-day low of 3989.1, confirming a downside channel break after a four-week losing streak, and the next-session pivot ladder (P 3938.8, S1 3839.
4) places value squarely below the broken level. Managed-money net length remains at an 89.17 three-year crowding percentile as of the 2026-10-20 CFTC report, leaving a crowded long cohort vulnerable to the forced liquidations visible in the flow headlines. Fundamentals offer only partial support: COMEX registered stocks fell 0.26 Moz over 20 reports and GLD holdings slipped 1.38% in 20 sessions, while SHFE warrants rose 873 kg — physical demand in China absorbs supply but has not arrested the slide. Implied vol at 26.15 versus RV20 of 19.1% shows options paying up for further event risk. Invalidation is a daily settle back above 3938.8 (next-session pivot) with a break above 3998.3 targeting 4097.7; failure to hold 3839.4 opens 3779.
9. No Asia print was available for this issue.