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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Bullish breakout confirmed — backwardation and draws argue higher | 2026-11-01

Brent front-month (BZ=F, mapped to BZF27.NYM) is BULLISH; the 2026-10-30 settle at 113.43 broke above the prior 20-day high of 112.63, and invalidation is a daily settle below the NEXT pivot S1 at 111.56. Three pillars support the call. First, price action: the settle is +2.37% on the day, +1.55% over five sessions and +14.91% over 20 sessions, with the 20-day channel (ex-today) at 94.71–112.63 and the 10-30 session high at 114.29 — a genuine breakout, not a wick. Second, fundamentals: EIA crude stocks at 410,625 kb (2026-10-23) are -3.8% vs the 5-year same-week average on a 4-week cumulative draw of -16,695 kb, distillates are -9.4% vs average, and refinery utilization is 92.8% — a tight physical picture corroborated by M1–M2 backwardation of 4.21 (3.71%) and a 44.54% roll yield. Third, positioning and macro: OVX at 58.48 sits well above RV20 of 26.5%, DXY is soft at 101.88, and the oil/gold ratio is at its 1-year maximum percentile. Risks are the 20-session mean-reversion tail (seasonality mean -2.91% over the next 20 sessions) and gasoline stocks building (+3,870 kb w/w). The trade: long above 112.92 (NEXT pivot P), targeting 116.16 (NEXT R2).