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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Bullish — Backwardation + Distillate Draw, IV-RV Premium Caps Conviction | 2026-11-01

We stay LONG WTI (CL=F, front-month mapping to NYMEX December CLZ26) with the 2026-10-30 settle at 104.12 and invalidation on a daily settle below NEXT S1 102.
7. Three reasons: (1) the term structure is in steep backwardation — M1-M2 at 1.91 USD/bbl (1.87%) with a 22.42% roll yield — confirming prompt physical tightness rather than a speculative squeeze; (2) EIA distillate stocks at 102,824 kb are running -9.4% vs the 5-year same-week average on a 4-week cumulative -2,356 kb draw, with 3:2:1 cracks at 55.68 USD/bbl (1Y percentile 61.51%, 3Y 87.17%) showing demand-pull refining economics; (3) managed-money net length is only 31,128 contracts (netPct 1.65%, 3-year crowding percentile 11.28) after four consecutive weekly declines — the rally is NOT crowded and there is room for trend followers (CTA proxy at +0.98) to add. The main hesitation is valuation and event risk: ^OVX at 58.48 trades at a +21.5 vol-point premium to RV20 at 37% (IV/RV 1.58), so options are paying up for downside protection into the 11-08/11-09 CPI and PPI prints. Seasonality is a headwind (20-session mean -2.68%, up only 5 of 15 years). We treat the 20D channel (86.86-110.48, position 73.1%) and the 52-week range (54.98-119.48) as context: the trend is up, but we are not chasing into the 105.26-106.41 NEXT resistance cluster without a pullback toward 102.7-103.85.