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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Crowded Longs Unwind | 2026-11-01

We are bearish COMEX December gold (GCZ26): the 2026-10-30 settlement of 3898.9 broke the prior 20-day low of 3989.1, and the setup stays short unless price reclaims the 3938.8 next-session pivot on a daily close. Three reasons: (1) trend and momentum have deteriorated fast — 1D -3.29%, 5D -2.72%, 20D -6.33%, with ATR14 at 74.95 (1.92% of price) and RV20 at 19.1%, so the break lower is being delivered with expanding, not fading, volatility; (2) positioning is still crowded even after the decline — CFTC managed-money net length sits at a 90.23 3-year crowding percentile (netPct 26.6%) as of 2026-10-27, leaving room for further long liquidation; (3) cross-asset conditions argue against gold here — the gold/silver ratio at 79.12 (1Y percentile 94.05%) shows gold relatively rich while silver lags, the copper/gold ratio at 1.66 (1Y percentile 100%) and oil/gold at 0.0267 (1Y percentile 100%) reflect pro-growth/risk-on rotation, and the 10Y yield at 4.93% raises carry competition. Fundamentals are neutral-to-supportive — COMEX registered stocks of 14.81 Moz and flat SHFE warrants of 116,904 kg show no physical squeeze, while GLD holdings fell 1.41% over 20 sessions, confirming ETF outflows. Invalidation is a daily close above 3938.8 (next-session pivot P).