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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | SHORT toward 6.36 unless 6.57 is reclaimed | 2026-11-01

SHORT HG=F (COMEX December copper HGZ26.CMX). The call is a tactical short into the next session with invalidation on a daily settle above 6.5698 (NEXT R1). Three reasons: (1) price structure has turned lower — the 2026-10-30 settle at 6.482 is down 1.83% on the day and -0.39% over five sessions, and it sits below the RETRO pivot 6.6158 that governed that session, so the rebound from the 6.3715 20-day low has failed at the 6.726 area; (2) exchange inventories are building, not tightening — LME warehouse stocks rose 1,800 MT to 274,000 MT on 2026-10-30 with a 20-report change of +25,350 MT, and COMEX registered stocks are up 3,000 short tons over 20 reports to 474,400 short tons (2026-10-29), which argues against a prompt squeeze; (3) managed-money net length is being liquidated, not added — net length fell to 40,575 contracts as of 2026-10-27 from 61,134 on 2026-10-06, with the crowding percentile at 38.04, so there is room to sell without being late, but the direction of flow is clearly bearish. Fundamentals are mixed rather than supportive: October copper cathode output in China dropped on tighter raw material supply, and SHFE warrants fell 348 MT to 10,999 MT (2026-10-30), yet downstream restocking willingness is weak and wire and cable operating rates were dragged by holiday disruptions. The copper/gold ratio at 1.66 (1Y percentile 100%) marks copper's outperformance versus gold as the most extended in a year — a pro-growth posture that is vulnerable as the 20-day channel rolls over. ATR14 is 0.1303 (2.01% of price), RV20 19.9%. Trade: breaks below 6.4223 (NEXT S1), targets 6.3627 (NEXT S2); invalidation on a daily settle above 6.5698 (NEXT R1).