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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Storage Surplus, Record Short Squeeze Risk Off | 2026-11-01

We stay SHORT natural gas (NG=F, mapped to front-month NYMEX NGZ26.NYM). Invalidation is a daily settle above the NEXT pivot R1 at 2.9407, which would confirm the 10-26 to 10-30 rebound as more than short covering and target R2 at 2.9833. The core view rests on three pillars. First, technicals are oversold but structurally damaged: the settle at 2.898 [settle 2026-10-30] is down 1.83% on the day and still -4.51% on 20 days despite a +9.77% five-day bounce, and price sits at just 47.9% of the 2.497-3.334 20-day range after the last completed weekly bar closed -15.28% w/w at 2.64. Second, the term structure is aggressively contango: M1-M2 at -0.473 (-14.03%) with a roll yield of -168.38% annualized is a severe carrying penalty against longs and a direct subsidy to the short side. Third, the fundamental backdrop of a well-supplied market is reinforced by positioning that is not yet an extreme: managed-money net length is -12.27% of OI, only a 52.43% 3-year crowding percentile, leaving room for shorts to add before the trade becomes crowded. ATR14 of 0.1681 (5.8% of price) and RV20 of 50.8% flag a volatile market, so risk management is essential, but direction remains down. The 52-week range of 2.483-7.827 confirms a deeply bearish multi-month trend.