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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Managed-Money Exodus | 2026-11-01

We are bearish SI=F and stay short unless price reclaims the next-session pivot at 50.162 on a daily close. The 2026-10-30 settlement of 49.276 broke decisively below the prior 20-day low of 52.025, confirming a downtrend that has now erased 18.44% over 20 sessions. Three factors drive the call. First, technical momentum has collapsed: ATR14 has expanded to 2.139 (4.34% of price) while RV20 prints 39.7%, and the last five settled bars show an uninterrupted sequence of lower highs and lower closes. Second, positioning is being unwound rather than crowded: CFTC managed-money net length fell from 7,528 contracts on 2026-10-06 to 3,321 on 2026-10-27, with the crowding percentile at just 27.9 — there is room for further liquidation before a washout. Third, the macro backdrop is hostile: the gold/silver ratio sits at 79.12, in its 94.05% one-year percentile, meaning silver is lagging gold even as both metals decline, while implied silver vol of 48.84 versus realized 39.7% shows option buyers paying up for further downside protection. COMEX registered stocks rose 3.19 Moz over 20 reports, a bearish supply signal. Invalidation is a daily close above 50.162; below that, the path to S1 at 48.009 and S2 at 46.742 remains open.