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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Weak Seasonal Tail, Soft Crush, Negative Roll | 2026-11-01

We stay SHORT soybeans (ZS=F, January 2026 delivery ZSF27.CBT). The market is drifting in a well-defined downtrend: settle 1222.25 [settle 2026-10-30] is down -2.73% over five sessions and -4.38% over twenty, sitting in the bottom decile of its 20-day range (1212.5–1309), with ATR14 at 16.54 (1.35% of price) confirming elevated but orderly downside velocity. Fundamentals offer no rescue: the US soybean crush margin has fallen to 2.1677 USD/bu [2026-10-30] from 2.4107 twenty sessions earlier, a one-year 33.73% percentile that signals weakening processor demand precisely when South American supply pressure builds. The term structure compounds the carry problem: M1–M2 contango of -9.5 (-0.76%) with a roll yield of -4.58% means longs pay to hold, and the 30-day Sharpe of -4.23 plus a 52-week drawdown of 11.58% confirm the path of least resistance is lower. Seasonality is a weak tailwind (+0.53% mean, 10 of 15 years up) and does not offset the bearish setup. Invalidation is a daily settle above NEXT R1 1227.92; a daily settle below NEXT S1 1216.92 targets S2 1211.58.