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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-30 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Rebar (RB2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Break Below 3039 on Rising Open Interest, Target 2990 | 2026-11-01

Direction: Bearish. RB2701 contract [2026-10-30] settlement 3039, 5-day -0.56%, 20-day -2.82%; price sits at the 15.1% percentile of the 20-day range 3012-3131, approaching the lower end. The core driver is active short positioning: main open interest +31542 lots while price fell 0.98%, with top-20 seats net short 7344 lots, expanding 9052 lots in a single day—a clear volume-price alignment. Fundamentals are bearish in tandem: social inventory in early October turned from destocking to restocking at +2.7% MoM, while late-September key steelmaker inventories, though -8.4% MoM, remain high in absolute terms, with supply-demand margins weakening. Technically, the next pivot P is 3037.33, with current price trading below it; S1 support at 3017.67 is only about 6 points above the 20-day low of 3012. Invalidation conditions: daily close holds above 3065, or top-20 net short contracts significantly contract for two consecutive days.