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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Bullish — Backwardation + Distillate Draw, Target 108.12 | 2026-11-02

We stay LONG WTI (CL=F, front-month mapping to NYMEX December CLZ26) with the 2026-10-30 settle at 104.12, invalidation on a daily settle below 98.39 (S2, RETRO ladder). Three reasons: (1) the term structure is in steep backwardation — M1–M2 at 1.91 USD/bbl (1.87%) with a 22.42% roll yield — confirming prompt physical tightness rather than a speculative premium; (2) EIA distillate stocks at 102,824 kb are running -9.4% vs the 5-year same-week average on a 4-week cumulative -2,356 kb draw, with the 3:2:1 crack at 55.68 USD/bbl (1Y percentile 61.51%, 3Y percentile 87.17%) showing demand-pull refining economics; (3) managed-money net length has been liquidating for four straight weeks (net 31,128 contracts as of 2026-10-27, down from 53,598 on 2026-10-06) while price is up 14.28% on 20 days — a crowded-long flush that leaves room for re-leveraging rather than a top. The 20-day range ex-today is 86.86–110.48 (position 73.1%), ATR14 is 4.26 (4.09% of price), and RV20 is 37% against an OVX of 58.48 (IV−RV +21.5 vol pts), so options are paying up for event risk into the November 6 non-farm payroll and the November 3 Congressional Elections. Seasonality is a headwind (next 20 sessions, 15-year mean -2.16%, up only 6 of 15 years), which is why the horizon stays 1–5 days and the stop stays wide at 98.44. A daily settle below 98.39 invalidates the tight-balance thesis.