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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

DCE.FB(FB2612) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Feeble Rebound on Position Reduction, Pressured by Lower 20-Day Channel Band | 2026-11-02

Direction: Bearish. FB2612 [10-30] closed at 1220, +0.78% vs. the previous settlement, a short-covering rebound after a large position reduction of 4,588 lots; the downtrends over 5 days (-1.89%) and 20 days (-3.75%) remain intact, with price still in the lower 30.6% region of the 20-day range of 1194–1279. Core rationale: First, both trend and position structure point to short dominance, and the rebound on position reduction by the main force lacks active buying. Second, ATR14 stands at 12.89 (1.06%) and RV20 at 15.2%—volatility has contracted but no bottoming signal with surging volume has emerged, and the 20-day moving average remains an effective cap. Third, fundamentals show no reversal catalyst; there were no China-related bullish headlines in the past 48h, and the upcoming PMI and CPI/PPI calendar leans toward a demand-verification window. Invalidation conditions: if the daily close breaks above the next pivot R1 at 1227.67, or price holds firmly above P at 1220.33 accompanied by renewed position buildup and upward move by the main force, the bearish structure collapses—shift to neutral and stand aside.