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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

DCE.RR(RR2612) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish, Downtrend Persists with Increased Open Interest | 2026-11-02

RR2612, the main contract for japonica rice, is bearish. The core logic comprises three points: First, the price is at the 20-day interval lower band at the 31.4% percentile, with 5-day and 20-day declines of -2.97% and -3.1%, respectively, confirming the downtrend. Second, although the settlement at [10-30] 3490 saw a rebound, main position holders increased open interest by 888 lots to 22,518 lots, representing a weak technical rebound after a decline with increased open interest, and the pattern of bears actively pressing prices remains unchanged. Third, the ATR14 is 28.14 points (approximately 0.8% daily range), and the 20-day volatility (RV20) is 15%. A break below the next pivot S1 at 3475.67 will confirm bearish continuation. Invalidated conditions: a daily close above 3512.67 (the next pivot R1) and holding, or a major supply shock in the fundamentals.