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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Lean Hogs (HE=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Oversold Bounce Fails, Next Support 57.725 | 2026-11-02

Bearish HE=F (December 2026 CME lean hogs, HEZ26). Settle 58.875 [settle 2026-10-30] is down 24.4% over 20 sessions and sits just 1.2% above the 52-week low of 58.2, with no demand-side catalyst to absorb the supply-driven slide. Three reasons: (1) relentless consecutive-lower-closes price action — five straight settled losses from 64.675 to 58.875 — with ATR14 at 1.591 (2.7% of price) confirming a high-volatility downtrend, not a basing pattern; (2) term structure shows M1-M2 contango at -4.875 (-7.65%) with a roll yield of -45.88%, meaning the front month is structurally weak and longs face a persistent negative carry; (3) the next-session pivot ladder (NEXT, from the 2026-10-30 H/L/C) has pivot at 59.175 with S1 at 58.3 and S2 at 57.725 — the settle is already below the pivot, so the path of least resistance is toward S2. Invalidation requires a daily settle above the NEXT R1 at 59.75, which would mark the first higher-high sequence since the slide began and would neutralize the bearish posture. Until then, rallies into the 59.175–59.75 zone are selling opportunities. No Asia intraday print was available for this issue, so all levels are referenced to the 2026-10-30 settlement and the NEXT pivot ladder. Macro cross-asset ratios are not a driver here; the trade is fundamentally and technically driven.