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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — LME Stock Build Overwhelms Weak SHFE Draw | 2026-11-02

We are bearish COMEX copper (HGZ26.CMX) this week; invalidation is a daily settle above the NEXT pivot R1 at 6.5698, which would mark the 10-30 breakdown as a false move. The market is drifting, not collapsing: settle 6.482 [settle 2026-10-30] is down 1.83% on the day and sits at just 26.5% of the 20-day range (6.3715–6.789), with ATR14 at 0.1303 (2.01% of price) and RV20 at 19.9% — an unremarkable volatility backdrop for a price that has lost its upward momentum. The bearish case rests on three pillars. First, the physical balance is loosening where it matters most for global pricing: LME warehouse stocks rose to 274,000 MT [2026-10-30], up 1,800 MT on the day and +25,350 MT over 20 reports, a persistent build that contradicts the tight-market narrative. Second, the support from Chinese restocking is thin: SHFE warrants fell only 348 MT to 10,999 MT [2026-10-30] after a 1,273 MT decline the prior day, and the 20-report change of -5,621 MT is a modest draw against the LME build. Third, positioning is being cut aggressively — CFTC managed-money net length fell to 40,575 contracts (Δ -7,115 w/w, as of 2026-10-27), the fourth consecutive weekly decline, taking the crowding percentile to 38.04 from 61.66 a month ago. With the copper/gold ratio at a 1-year percentile of 100%, the cyclical premium is already maxed out, leaving little room for disappointment. The path of least resistance is lower toward NEXT S1 at 6.4223.