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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Managed-Money Exodus Not Yet Done | 2026-11-02

We are bearish SI=F and stay short unless the contract reclaims the next-session pivot at 50.162 on a daily settlement basis. Three reasons: first, the 2026-10-30 settlement of 49.276 broke decisively below the prior 20-day low of 52.025, confirming a downtrend that has already cost silver 18.44% over 20 sessions. Second, positioning is not washed out — managed-money net length has fallen for four consecutive weeks to 3,321 contracts (crowding at just the 28th 3-year percentile), but open interest is still rising, meaning short pressure is being absorbed rather than capitulated. Third, implied volatility at 48.84 versus realized 39.7% shows options markets pricing further downside event risk into a week loaded with US elections, ISM, JOLTS and non-farm payrolls. Fundamentals offer no refuge: COMEX registered stocks rose 3.19 Moz over 20 reports while SHFE warrants fell 65,000 kg, and SLV holdings gained only 1.92% — a modest physical bid against a paper-driven sell-off. The gold/silver ratio at 79.12 (94.05% 1-year percentile) confirms silver is lagging gold on the cross-asset axis. With ATR14 at 2.139 (4.34% of price), downside continuation targets the next-session S1 at 48.009, then S2 at 46.742. Invalidation is a daily settle back above 50.162.