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データ基準日: 2026-10-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Momentum Below Pivot, Seasonal Headwind | 2026-11-02

Bearish ZW=F (CBOT December wheat, ZWZ26.CBT) while the 10-30 settle of 603.5 holds below the next-session pivot at 603.92; invalidation is a daily settle above 615.67 (R2). Three reasons: (1) trend — the 20-day change is -11.64% with price at 9.1% of the 20-day range (593.25–706.
5), an established downtrend, not a dip; (2) structure — M1-M2 contango of -13.5 (-2.19%) with a roll yield of -8.75% means longs pay to hold, so there is no carry subsidy to fund a bottom-fishing position; (3) seasonality — the next 20 sessions average -2.21% (median -2.6%, up only 4 of 15 years), a persistent seasonal headwind into year-end. Technically, ATR14 is 14.16 (2.35% of price) and RV20 is 18.9%, so a 14-point daily range is normal noise — the 10-30 bar (H 610 / L 598.25 / C 603.
5) is a mid-range bar, not a reversal. The 10-29 close of 603.75 and the 10-30 close of 603.5 are nearly identical, showing no buying conviction at the 600 handle. The 20-day low at 593.25 is the only clean support below; a daily settle beneath it targets 588.25 (S2, RETRO). Fundamentally, the cross-asset block shows no wheat-specific inventory, export or weather data, so the call rests on price structure, term structure and seasonality rather than a supply-demand inflection. With no Asia print captured for this issue, report-date levels are intraday only and the 10-30 settle is the analysis base.