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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-30 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Iron Ore (I2701) Deep Analysis | Bearish: Decline with Decreased Position + Expanded Net Short | 2026-11-02

Direction: Bearish. Iron Ore I2701 settled at 675 on [10-30], down 0.44% day-on-day and 5.82% over 20 days, positioned 23.3% below the 20-day range of 660–711.5, with the price center continuously shifting lower. Core drivers are threefold: First, net short positions among the top 20 holders expanded by 1,414 contracts to 45,713, maintaining dominance of short positions. Second, main position holders reduced open interest by 1,557 contracts, a nominal decrease of 105 million, reflecting a pattern of long-side unwinding during the decline, lacking active buying interest. Third, social steel inventory increased by 2.7% month-on-month in early October, indicating weak demand absorption during the seasonally strong period, putting pressure on raw material prices. Failure condition: A daily close breaking above the next pivot R1 at 679.33 (approximately 0.6 ATR from current price) would challenge the short-side dominance, shifting to a neutral outlook. If it further holds above 688.67, a trend reversal is indicated. Key downside support is the next pivot S1 at 667.33; a break below this level could see prices test 660.