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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-30 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Net-Short Extreme Meets Weak Seasonals | 2026-11-02

We stay SHORT natural gas (NG=F, front-month NGZ26.NYM). The call is anchored on three pillars. First, positioning: CFTC managed-money net short reached -206,317 contracts on 2026-10-27, a 3-year crowding percentile of 52.43, with the weekly delta of -48,908 contracts the most aggressive short-build in the four-week window — yet price gained +9.77% over the same five sessions, a classic crowded-short squeeze that leaves the tape fragile rather than healthy. Second, term structure: the M1-M2 spread sits at -0.473 (-14.03%) with a roll yield of -168.38%, a steep contango that punishes long holders and signals ample prompt supply. Third, the technicals have already rolled over: after the 2026-10-29 close of 2.952, price settled 2026-10-30 at 2.898, -1.83% on the day, back below the RETRO pivot 2.9737, with 20-day realized volatility at 50.8% and ATR14 at 0.1681 (5.8% of price) — the highest volatility regime of the four energy/vol complexes we track. Invalidation is a daily settle above the NEXT R1 at 2.9407; a break below the NEXT S1 at 2.8427 targets 2.7873 (S2). Seasonality is no offset: the next 20 sessions average +2.07% but were up only 8 of 15 years, worst -23.17% (2021).