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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-30 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 10% 20-Day Slide, Contango Pressures ZCZ26 | 2026-11-02

We stay SHORT corn (ZCZ26.CBT) on continued weakness, with invalidation only on a daily settle above 453.92 (next-session R2). Corn settled 447.75 [settle 2026-10-30], down -0.78% on the day, -1.81% over five sessions and -10.05% over 20 sessions, trading at the very bottom of the 20-day range 447.5–509.75 (ex-today) and holding a 52-week range of 398.5–544.
5. The technical picture is unambiguous: five consecutive lower daily closes (455, 448.75, 451.75, 451.25, 447.75), the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-26–2026-10-30) closed down -1.81% w/w at 447.75, and ATR14 stands at 7.2 (1.61% of price) with RV20 at 19.1%. The term structure compounds the bearish case: M1-M2 contango of -13.25 (-2.87%) and a roll yield of -11.5% mean longs pay to hold, while the continuous contract maps to December 2026 (ZCZ26.CBT) with no roll pending. Macro headwinds are modest but real — DXY at 101.88 and 10Y at 4.93% [2026-10-30] — while cross-asset ratios show copper/gold and oil/gold both at 1Y percentile 100%, a pro-growth/risk-on backdrop that typically weighs on defensive grain demand. Seasonality is negative (mean -1.24%, median -1.17%, up only 4 of 15 years). Risk metrics confirm the downtrend: DD52w 17.54%, Sharpe30 -6.31, VaR95 -1.97%. No Asia intraday print was available for this issue.