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データ基準日: 2026-11-02 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Demand-Side Shock Breaks 99.44 Weekly Support | 2026-11-03

Bearish WTI (CL=F, December 2026 delivery CLZ26.NYM). The 11-02 session settled at 96.26, down -7.55% on the day and -5.4% over five sessions, shattering the 99.44 low of the last completed weekly bar and dragging the 20-day channel position to 39.8%. The break was driven by a gasoline-led demand shock: EIA gasoline stocks built +3,870 kb w/w (2026-10-23) against a crude draw of -1,892 kb, while distillate stocks fell -1,462 kb — a mixed physical picture that the market read as demand destruction rather than tightness. Refinery utilization at 92.8% and rigs at 462 (+2 w/w, +48 y/y) confirm supply-side resilience. Managed-money net length collapsed to 31,128 contracts (2026-10-27), a 3-year crowding percentile of just 11.28, while CTA trend exposure sits at a maximum +98 — a crowded systematic long facing a crowded fundamental short. Backwardation (M1-M2 +1.91) and a 3:2:1 crack at 55.68 (P3Y 87.17%) offer the only bull anchors. Invalidation: a daily settle above NEXT R1 100.95; downside target 90.467 (NEXT S2).