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データ基準日: 2026-11-02 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | LONG into COMEX December Gold — Oversold Bounce vs 90th-Percentile Crowding | 2026-11-03

LONG COMEX December gold (GCZ26). Invalidation: a daily settle below NEXT S1 3912.13 (2026-11-02 H/L/C ladder) breaks the bounce structure and flips the call to neutral/bearish. Three reasons: (1) the market is deeply oversold after a -4.5% 20-day slide that pressed the 20-day low at 3879.3 [settle basis], and the 2026-11-02 session reclaimed the RETRO pivot 3938.8, closing at 3969.6 for a +1.81% 1D gain — the first higher settle in five sessions; (2) macro tailwinds are aligned, with DXY at 101.78 and 10Y yield at 4.89% [2026-11-02] both softening on the day, lowering real-carry pressure while VIX at 21.15 (1Y percentile 87%) and OVX at 62.69 keep bid for safe havens; (3) physical and flow data do not confirm the washout — GLD holdings fell only -1.41% over 20 sessions while SHFE warrants rose +873 kg over 20 reports, and COMEX registered stocks slipped a marginal -0.13% d/d to 14.81 Moz [2026-10-29], so the drawdown looks like a positioning shake-out rather than a fundamental re-rating. The main counterweight is crowded longs: CFTC managed-money net length sits at a 90.23 3-year crowding percentile (as of 2026-10-27), which caps upside conviction and makes the trade a tactical bounce, not a trend restart. Entry 3969.6 [settle 11-02], stop 3884.2, target 4101.6, horizon 1-5 days; a break above NEXT R1 4003.93 with rising open interest would extend toward R2 4038.27.