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データ基準日: 2026-11-02 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Neutral—Range Bound at 6.55, Break of 6.4365 Turns Bearish | 2026-11-03

Neutral on COMEX copper (HG=F, December 2026 contract HGZ26.CMX). The market is range-bound, and I need a break of support or resistance to take a view. Settle 6.5675 [2026-11-02] sits at position 46.9% of the 20-day range 6.3715–6.789, a mid-range reading with no directional edge. Three reasons for the neutral call: (1) price is stuck between the 20-day low at 6.3715 and high at 6.789, with 5D +0.39% and 20D -1.11% — no trend; (2) positioning is being trimmed, with CFTC managed-money net length at 40,575 contracts as of 2026-10-27, down from 61,134 on 2026-10-06, and the crowding percentile at 38.04 — neither crowded nor a contrarian buy signal; (3) inventories are mixed: LME warehouse stocks at 274,000 MT [2026-10-30] are up 25,350 on a 20-report change, a bearish supply signal, while SHFE warrants at 10,600 MT [2026-11-02] are down 2,825 on the same basis, a bullish offsetting tightness signal. Invalidation: a daily close below the next-session S2 at 6.4365 would turn the structure bearish and target the 20-day low at 6.3715; conversely, a daily close above R2 at 6.6475 would target the 20-day high at 6.789. Volatility is contained, with ATR14 at 0.1325 (2.02% of price) and RV20 at 19.8%. The copper/gold ratio at 1.66 (1Y percentile 100%) shows copper's relative strength is already priced in, limiting further upside from that channel. No Asia print was available for this report date.