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データ基準日: 2026-11-02 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish – Prompt Contango, Record Short Crowding Into November Thaw | 2026-11-03

We stay SHORT NG=F (NGZ26.NYM); invalidation is a daily settle above 3.0247 (NEXT R2). Three reasons: (1) the term structure is in steep prompt contango (M1-M2 -14.03%, roll yield -168.38%), which pays shorts to hold and penalizes longs at every roll; (2) the 20-day channel is -6.59% and the 11-02 settle at 2.864 gave back -1.17% on the day after the 10-29 spike to 3.073 failed at the 3.334 ex-today 20-day high — the rally is a short-covering squeeze inside a downtrend, not a reversal; (3) managed-money net short has grown for three of four weeks to -206,317 contracts (10-27) while crowd percentile sits at a neutral 52.43%, leaving room for further shorting before positioning becomes a contrarian constraint. Fundamentally the balance is loose: the +9.77% w/w rally into 10-30 was weather-driven, and with heating-season demand still unverified, the carry structure signals ample prompt supply. Volatility is elevated (ATR14 0.1613, 5.63% of price; RV20 50.7%) with OVX at 62.69, so risk is two-sided into Friday's NFP, but the 2.7707 NEXT S2 is the first downside target on a break below 2.8173 (NEXT S1). Trade is bearish; the squeeze premium should decay.