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データ基準日: 2026-11-02 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Break Below 20-Day Low on Rising Open Interest, Bears Dominant | 2026-11-03

Direction: Bearish. RB2701 [11-02 settlement] 3019, [11-03 intraday] 3007 broke below the 20-day low of 3012, triggering a bearish signal. Three core reasons: 1) Price fell on rising open interest, with main positions +86,044 lots and top-20 seats net short 12,013 lots (daily expansion 4,669 lots), as bears actively added positions;
2) 20-day change -3.19%, position 0.8%, price discount near the lower end of the 20-day range, with no sign of momentum stabilization;
3) Social inventory in early October +2.7% month-on-month, with seasonal destocking starting earlier than drawdown, and fundamentals lacking support for a reversal. Direction failure condition: daily close breaks above 3024 (next pivot R1). Downside target 2998 (S1), stop loss about 1 ATR above 3024.