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データ基準日: 2026-11-02 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Rally into 20D Floor, 48.19 Invalidates | 2026-11-03

We stay SHORT SI=F (COMEX December silver, SIZ26.CMX). The 2026-11-02 settle of 50.888 [settle 11-02] is a -16.99% 20D move that leaves the contract at 15% of its 20-day range (48.895–62.21), and Tuesday's +3.27% bounce is a counter-trend repricing into a well-defined pivot wall, not a reversal of the dominant down-trend. Three pillars support the call: (1) structure — the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-26–10-30) closed 49.276, -8.66% w/w, and the 20-day floor at 48.895 has not been breached, so the trend bias remains down while price holds under the NEXT pivot R1 51.789; (2) positioning — CFTC managed-money net length has fallen for four consecutive weeks, from 7,528 contracts (2026-10-06) to 3,321 (2026-10-27), with the crowding percentile at just 27.9 — the wash-out is advanced but not complete, and there is no long-side crowded risk to underpin a bottom; (3) relative value — the gold/silver ratio sits at 78.01 [11-02], 92.86% of its 1-year range, meaning silver has been structurally lagging gold and its bounce has done nothing yet to change that. Invalidation is a daily settle above 51.789 (NEXT R1); a daily close below 48.189 (NEXT S2) would confirm continuation toward the 52-week low region. Volatility is elevated (ATR14 2.167, 4.26% of price; RV20 41.6%) with IV above RV, so options-funded exposure is paying up for event risk into JOLTS and the Congressional Elections.